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#632803 21/04/20 02:59 PM
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What do we think will happen to transfer fees this summer baring in mind what’s going on with no games or money going into clubs?

I’m only asking because I’ve seen a few reports suggesting they could be a lot less than they were with even a former member of the European Parliament suggesting Mbappe could cost as little as €40m (I’d eat my house if that was the case).

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Originally Posted By wilkij1975
What do we think will happen to transfer fees this summer baring in mind what’s going on with no games or money going into clubs?

I’m only asking because I’ve seen a few reports suggesting they could be a lot less than they were with even a former member of the European Parliament suggesting Mbappe could cost as little as €40m (I’d eat my house if that was the case).


I think your house is safe. Seriously, it all depends when games restart and how. If it's behind closed doors and they start pay per match tv, then the financial impact on clubs wont be too significant, but if there are no games until people get vaccinated, then the impact on club finances will be huge, Arsenal players have taken a 12.5% pay cut apparently

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I agree and it might also depend on how everything else has been effected. Playing behind closed doors will bring money in from TV but if people are losing their jobs they might not afford it so could be that there’s not as much money as there could’ve been for example. Sponsors might not have as much money to pump into football and even the TV companies may lose enough and have to rein in the spending?

One thing is for sure though, it’ll be interesting to see come the summer.

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I think the public (not necessarily football fans) will not like the idea of huge £100 million transfers, with all the talk ATM on emergency service pay/people losing jobs etc, I can see clubs getting allot of heat and bad press if they start chucking huge sums of money around in the summer, will be interesting to see what the likes of Man City, Man Utd, RM, Barca who were predicted to spend big do in the current climate.

Hopefully it will re-align transfers/pay values, but I can see it creeping back up when the world moves on, but this is all paid for by TV contracts, so if the likes of SKY/BT lose lots of subscribers, the next set of TV deal bids maybe much smaller, which could send some big clubs under with their commitments.

I can see a standoff happening where clubs are reluctant to make the first move with a large bid, it seems that's what has stopped us from making a deal on Werner with his release clause, we could not make a £50 deal in the current climate with players and clubs arguing over % of pay being donated and staff furloughed etc.

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There's going to have to be some creative strategy from the TV companies and clubs. Sponsors will likely reign in their outlay and a lot of fans won't be able to renew their season tickets or go to away games.

For the time being if games are played behind closed doors I'd imagine the TV Companies will partner with topflight clubs tv channels to offer PPV on games.

I can't see many big transfers in the summer with most clubs taking stock of the financial impact in the game. I can see a lot of contract extensions with clubs unwilling to pay lofty wages / transfer fees for new players.

I hope we don't get caught with our kecks around our ankles and allow players to leave for a pittance (Lovren and Shaqiri) or in the case of folks like Lallana and Clyne on freebies without having replacements already in place.

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Originally Posted By wilkij1975
What do we think will happen to transfer fees this summer baring in mind what’s going on with no games or money going into clubs?

I’m only asking because I’ve seen a few reports suggesting they could be a lot less than they were with even a former member of the European Parliament suggesting Mbappe could cost as little as €40m (I’d eat my house if that was the case).


This is a fantastic question and one I was looking at posting myself. If you look at pre-virus less than 2 months ago in Europe you would possibly say it would cost even City over £200m to get near us next season. Man Utd possibly £350m. This may very well be the window to sit on what we have and let others make mistakes or moves. The important thing is to not move away from our recent record in the market.

Making no significant signings would not be popular. But if we were sat 12 points clear in April next season I doubt if we would be worrying much about it.

It is very difficult to assess what a players value is now. There is certainly no mileage to be selling anyone unless the replacement can be got at a knock down price. And what about wages? Any player on a big contract would be foolish to move because they are not going to get anything like what they are on now. This could happen again and one player could bankrupt a team or seriously compromise its plans for the future by staying. So for all the speculation over Man U buying this player and that player let's remember that at the end of this season Mr. Sanchez will be on his way back to Old Toilet which runs for another 2 years yet.

Our players are very much assets and any team out there who thinks they can prise one away like Salah or Mane may still end up paying closer to the going rate.

We may even end up keeping Lallana on a short contract. We certainly don't have to release Shaqiri or Wilson on the cheap either and if someone wants Lovren make them pay too. The fees and wages on new contracts for top players will be fascinating to watch. I hope agents fees are absolutely slashed too.

ecnirp98 #632816 21/04/20 09:01 PM
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Originally Posted By ecnirp98
I think the public (not necessarily football fans) will not like the idea of huge £100 million transfers, with all the talk ATM on emergency service pay/people losing jobs etc, I can see clubs getting allot of heat and bad press if they start chucking huge sums of money around in the summer, will be interesting to see what the likes of Man City, Man Utd, RM, Barca who were predicted to spend big do in the current climate.

Hopefully it will re-align transfers/pay values, but I can see it creeping back up when the world moves on, but this is all paid for by TV contracts, so if the likes of SKY/BT lose lots of subscribers, the next set of TV deal bids maybe much smaller, which could send some big clubs under with their commitments.

I can see a standoff happening where clubs are reluctant to make the first move with a large bid, it seems that's what has stopped us from making a deal on Werner with his release clause, we could not make a £50 deal in the current climate with players and clubs arguing over % of pay being donated and staff furloughed etc.


I can see more competition for TV rights and someone like Amazon coming in to get more games or even show live games where they are sold out and can be played outside of the 3pm Saturday slot on a pay per view or TV season ticket deal. Clubs are going to move quickly and trade smarter to be ready for change.

Prices will creep back up but not to the obscene Neymar transfer level. So the price of Mbappe will come down but he would still command the biggest fee of a post-virus era if sold.

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I dont think prices will drop a lot this summer because the game has been affected by about 6-8 weeks and they have already started training in Germany. It's just like a summer holiday period. TV rights and subscriptions have been on for the better part of the season and the only problem are tickets sales (normal because season tickets have been sold for the season anyway, maybe they will be reimbursed or clubs will offer online pay tv to those fans). I rather think that if anything the effect will be on next season transfers, it's only then that clubs will understand the impact. I think PPV system will just go up.

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Originally Posted By EnergisedReds
I dont think prices will drop a lot this summer because the game has been affected by about 6-8 weeks and they have already started training in Germany. It's just like a summer holiday period. TV rights and subscriptions have been on for the better part of the season and the only problem are tickets sales (normal because season tickets have been sold for the season anyway, maybe they will be reimbursed or clubs will offer online pay tv to those fans). I rather think that if anything the effect will be on next season transfers, it's only then that clubs will understand the impact. I think PPV system will just go up.


I understand what you are saying because once up and running a lot of where the money comes from will continue to flow in. But I think that there will be a lack of confidence not just in football but in all walks of life when Joe Public decides to spend his money. Financially everyone is going to take a hit on this and people will spend money on the really important things. I agree it is like a summer holiday period but what if this happens again. The whole game from grass roots up needs to cut its cloth accordingly.

What we are left with is going to be a lot different.

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Originally Posted By AccaBoosty
Originally Posted By EnergisedReds
I dont think prices will drop a lot this summer because the game has been affected by about 6-8 weeks and they have already started training in Germany. It's just like a summer holiday period. TV rights and subscriptions have been on for the better part of the season and the only problem are tickets sales (normal because season tickets have been sold for the season anyway, maybe they will be reimbursed or clubs will offer online pay tv to those fans). I rather think that if anything the effect will be on next season transfers, it's only then that clubs will understand the impact. I think PPV system will just go up.


I understand what you are saying because once up and running a lot of where the money comes from will continue to flow in. But I think that there will be a lack of confidence not just in football but in all walks of life when Joe Public decides to spend his money. Financially everyone is going to take a hit on this and people will spend money on the really important things. I agree it is like a summer holiday period but what if this happens again. The whole game from grass roots up needs to cut its cloth accordingly.

What we are left with is going to be a lot different.


I think you’re right. I don’t think many clubs will spend like they did and risk not being financially sound a few months later when the full impact of this kicks in. Utd will spend as they are desperate and City will because, well, they’re City and we all know what they do. Apart from that it could be a pretty flat window. Let’s just hope the moaning is to a minimum if we don’t spank £100’s of millions.

It’ll also be interesting to see what happens to players who’s contracts end in June if weee still playing (or not started again) by then?

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