We need to be aiming for higher than 4th place. If my co-efficients understanding is correct, the EPL could be reduced to 3 Champions League entrants from next season;
If any Serie A team gets further than any EPL team this year, then our 4th spot gets given to Italy.
On the bright side, it will make the Europa League more interesting as there will be a better calibre of teams in it. On the down side, it means we will get knocked out even earlier!!! :-)