We have been enjoying a healthy discussion on the site over the past few days following my recent article on the possibility of future investment at Liverpool. Several fans have been asking for details of those plans following the meeting I had with senior figures at Anfield referred to here....
Without breaching confidentiality, I can tell you that during those conversations with the Liverpool hierarchy, the details of a 5 year plan were outlined to me: with an emphasis upon stability.
Confirmation of a £100 million pound investment is pivotal to the first step of that plan, and assurances have been made that this money will arrive before the end of the season. Clearly, whether or not this money materialises will have a significant impact upon the next step in any plan.
If that investment arrives, then Gillett and Hicks` share of ownership of the club will be reduced – and if not, then the level at which club profits will be required to service the debt will remain the same: as will all the limitations that this entails.
Without that investment, then those financial limitations mean, and this is my view, the club (and fans) cannot expect a top four finish as a minimum expectation. It was explained to me – and it is a widely held belief amongst financial experts in the football industry –that there is a direct correlation between the amount of wages paid by a club and the level at which that club can expect to be competitive. With Chelsea, Manchester United and Arsenal all operating on a higher wage structure than the one in place at Anfield – and with Spurs and Manchester City all matching Liverpool at the moment – then, it is fair to assume the top for cannot be taken for granted, don`t you think?
This is an argument that has been articulated, not by the American owners, but by the directors instilled by RBS to oversee the financial strategy at the club. Naturally, they are trying to convince everyone of their own ideas and vision – but, personally speaking, I have been persuaded that, if the investment required arrives, then the club is in the right hands.
The source of that £100 million investment will also have to be in a position to help finance the building of a new stadium (at a cost of £350 million) while also having enough leverage to help attract the necessary loans and further investment from the banks.
I anticipate the next question from the fans will be regarding how much of any £100 million investment will be made available to strengthen the squad.The answer is, in the short term, that supporters are unlikely to notice any significant increase in spending power at Anfield. However, in the longer term, the club will be in a much healthier financial position and, over time, the clubs budget will grow. For example, the plan is for the additional revenue generated by a new stadium to double the club`s £45 million profits – which in turn will lead to an increase in the budget available for transfer spending etc.
Will that be enough to convince Rafa Benitez of a long term future at the club? Yes, provided that his plans for the squad in the short and medium are adhered to. That will involve the ability to secure the two or three players he has identified on free contracts at the end of the season. The manager will also need to offload several unhappy players for a decent fee and be able to re-invest any money generated by player sales back into the squad, and the directors say it is the case.
Liverpool fans may be alarmed at the mention of free transfers playing a significant role in summer spending plans, but it illustrates that Benitez is acting prudently and making allowances for the fact that additional investment may not materialise or that his budget may not increase significantly.
It also emphasises the fact that, despite the interest from Juventus, Benitez is planning ahead for a future at Liverpool and that his head – and his heart – are tied to Anfield whatever happens regarding external investment. If the additional £100 million does reach the club – and the new stadium is built - then Benitez will at least be able to build a squad with the depth to rival United or Chelsea. And if it doesn`t, then the target will have to be to maintain an extremely competitive first IX, while trying to assemble a second string of players that is as good as possible under the circumstances.
