For me, where we finish depends on two things:
1) Summer transfers. Hate to say it, but right now our squad is barely above mid-table. Spurs certainly have a better squad than us, Newcastle gives us a go in terms of first XI (although their bench is terrible), and Everton are not far behind. If we sign the types of players that we've been linked with (Dempsey, Walcott, Allen, etc.) then I'd say we will probably make a decent run at 5th or 6th. But if we don't sign anyone else, or if we sign the wrong types of players or even worse, lose our good players (Agger, Suarez), we will be in for a really rough time I fear.
2) Players over/under-achieving. We were a strange team last year, in that some players had very solid seasons and showed a lot of improvement (Skrtel, Johnson, Enrique until about January), while others were significantly worse than the season before (Downing, Adam, Henderson, Carroll, and even Reina). If we can get some of these players playing at the level that they were at before, we'll be in good shape. Imagine what 10 extra goals from Carroll, and 5-10 extra assists from Downing, Adam, and Henderson would have done for us last year. Newcastle last year really showed how far an over-achieving team can take you. If we can emulate that, we could make a decent push for 5th or 6th. But if we have another "0 goals 0 assists"-type campaign from Downing & Co. then we'll be in the exact same position we were in last year.
I have Brendy disease.
