The winner of the Europa Cup automatically qualifies for the following season's Europa Cup, unless the team qualifies for the Champions' League via some other method such as winning their league.
Can we get 4th? Very hard to say right now as the table is in some turmoil. For all their bluster, City might not make top 3 either in the face of Drogba+Torres at Chelsea. It's already only a two horse race for the title, and Arsenal are not good chasers and didn't buy anyone during the window. Sad to say, I think we're not going to be first to get no. 19.
Getting back to 4th, we're 2 points out of 6th having played the same number of games as Sunderland, but Spurs (5th) have a 6 point gap and a game in hand over us, though their transfer window can only be described as a failure. With LFC at Chelsea on the weekend, a game I'd love to see us win but will be more than happy with a point, our challenge for 5th may face an early setback. We could be as many as 12 points adrift of Spurs, and that really is too much to make up, and they're not even in the top 4. One or two clubs ahead of us may stumble, but surely not all of them? Of course, it's still early days, and there's nothing to say we won't remain unbeaten until Carroll is fit and then we win every game in sight.
My prediction hasn't changed since the start of the season: finish 6th, hopefully challenge for 5th. That's still only a Europa Cup place, but 6th this season is a really good effort seeing as we were 12th prior to the Jan window.