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Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 8,791
1st Team Squad
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1st Team Squad
Joined: Jun 2011
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My guess is either united or arsenal...
Sign Reus
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Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 7,446
1st Team Squad
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1st Team Squad
Joined: Feb 2013
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I am not feeling forced to respond and here they are:
1. Yes, I think that Arsenal has a real intent and understand that competing for top trophies is not possible without top players which Suarez is. Top players are expensive and just buying Suarez will show ambition to win the EPL/CL that will help to both attract other players and keep those who might feel that they will not win much by staying at Arsenal (as it has been with RVP, Fabregas Nasri etc in the past). It will be like a statement of intent that they are going to target big things and they are walking the talk.
2. I think that the longer it takes the harder it gets because we get in a vicious circle (as we are now) as opposed to a virtuous one. Why? When you are in the CL you have more revenues and exposure worldwide and therefore can afford to buy better players which in turn helps you to achieve higher targets (higher revenues again), sell more merchandise (people are always proud to be associated with success) and attract bigger sponsors, more money again to buy better players and so on (virtuous circle). When you are not in the CL, your revenues are lower, you cannot afford to buy better players, your RELATIVE brand value drops and it becomes more and more difficult to compete, you get in the vicious circle. To get in the virtuous circle you need a step change (jump) that usually comes with investment to bridge the gap. The problem with organic growth is that most teams will have it anyway so it very difficult to close the gap on those who are already above you. What makes it even more complex in the EPL is that there is a huge difference between 4th and 5th in terms of revenue generation potential because of CL qualification.
3. I give FSG a lot of credit for what they have done at Red Sox, they have been very successful at improving the value of their asset (a primary goal for any investor), which is, I am sure their intention with LFC. I admit that I don't know what they did exactly there but, think that that they used the well documented Moneyball approach. I feel they are trying to do the same with us and from what I have seen so far, will not get us where I would like LFC to be (competing for the EPL and CL in the next couple of years). I have one real example to look at, which is Arsenal who you would agree hasn't won much since they started that philosophy (because of their new stadium), in fact they seem to be changing it now (point 1 above). For us it will be even more difficult as the EPL has changed with 4 rich teams now. So either FFP changes the football business environment, if FSG wants the value of LFC to increase as Red Sox, they will have no option but to invest (stadium and players) and then work on self sustainment, else, their long term will end up being very long term, and we will all be dead. This is how I see things. I really can't believe that you think Arsenal will near treble their previous most expensive transfer ever, and break their wage budget, for a player now. It is like everyone has forgotten how Arsene Wenger works in the market. I may well be forced to eat my words, but I don't see Suarez leaving for Arsenal, and I don't see Arsene putting enough money to make us sell. I don't see him doing anything other than trying to disrupt us in our pursuit of catching them, by unsettling our key man. I understand your points about revenue, and branding, and investment. I do agree that being in the CL makes it much easier to stay in the CL. But in the last four seasons, 1 team has always fallen out of that top four. And the teams that have filled that spot, have on average spent just £26.75M, and brought in £30M. Yes, on average, these teams make a profit and still make the top 4. I am not saying "lets stick to those principles" but it does suggest that spending lots of money is not necessarily the reason behind them making 4th! Why would their approach not work for us? You're taking their approach as being their entire 3 year period, when they have completely altered the make-up of the manager, transfer dealings and everything close to the training field this season. Either way, I am glad you brought Arsenal up, because I want to prove you wrong, definitively, in your comparison of us and them. And guess what, I can do that, because Arsenal's NET SPEND in the last 9 years (which for the record includes the year they last won the title) has been... £1.75M... That is less than £200k a year. How is that comparable to us?! We have a NET SPEND, under FSG of £71M. On average, given that they have only been at the club for 2.5 season, that is a NET SPEND of £14.2M per transfer window. £28.4M A SEASON. In that same period the club have spent £185.65M, which for the record, doesn't include this seasons values. Before this window, the club had spent £55M less than Arsenal have in 9 seasons, over 2 and a half. Over those 9 Seasons, Arsenal have spent just shy of £240M, and we have spent just over £185M in 2 and a half. How is that comparison viable?! plus 1 point for jj
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Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 22,926
Liverpool Legend
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Liverpool Legend
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 22,926 |
My guess is either united or arsenal... Honestly, is it a belief or a hope and if a belief by when do you think? May I ask what makes you believe this?
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Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 2,824
Under 23 Player
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Under 23 Player
Joined: Jul 2012
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It's not about me thinking or not about Arsenal's seriousness in buying Suarez, they have made a bid that apparently matches the release clause and it is even reported than Suarez will be allowed to talk to them. They could be bluffing, but then, how do we know unless we call their bluff, the proff is that they have made a 40m+1 bid. So what you're saying is that you're going to dispel all previous history of Arsenal's transfers to attempt to make a point?! It makes no sense to me. The truth is the club made a bid that has been rejected for a player at a club that, the club itself feels, it is competing with. And you're going to take the media at face value; which I find very counter-intuitive. When I was refering to Arsenal's philosophy, it was not to compare transfer spent, but more of a philosophy of not buying expensive players but rather players with potential as it seems we are trying now. As you said, our net spent in the last 9 years has been higher that theirs but we used to at least match their performance until 3-4 years back. In the last 9 years we still won more trophies than them. Excluding FSG's ownership, we have been more successful than them since they started to repay their stadium. I agree that we haven't been as stingy as them in terms of transfers, but then, just qualifying for the CL is not the benchmark I want to follow, even if it can be very profitable (Arsenal has been able to self finance a new stadium). I agree that 4th shouldn't be the overall goal. Nobody has suggested that limiting ourselves to 4th for the foreseeable future is a good strategy. You suggested that having more money, and better branding, and better chance of success comes from being in the CL. Arsenal haven't been able to maintain that while they have self-funded a stadium I get it. But to say they have only bought players with potential is not entirely true. Cazorla, Arteta, Podolski, Gervinho, Mertesacker, Vermaelen, Sagna, Monreal, Rosicky, Arshavin, Giroud, Nasri... Do I need to go on? They were all known to people before they signed for them. Most came in for good fees. Even Koscielny, Walcott and Chamberlain were big fees. it is not about spending less, it was about spending appropriately. It looks like there are at least 4 teams above us that can afford to spend more than us (City, Chelsea, United and now Arsenal). The first step would be to get in that top 4 and regularly. With our philosophy of a net spend of 25m (generated by a self sustained LFC), who do you then think we are going to knock off? I said, so far, it had been over £28M per season. I said before that without a 2-3 big signings, we possible contenders rather than probable. I think you have to look at our last half-season to see the progress the team has made picking up more points, and scoring more goals, and conceding less. As it stands, Arsenal have brought in one young striker, and Spurs have brought in yet another midfielder, and a winger, when they need another striker or two. We have at least covered all our bases so far with a new attacker, a centre-half to replace Carra and a keeper to replace one that has under-performed. Why shouldn't we feel, right now, that we at least have a chance at that 4th place? I am not saying is is probable without more spending, but it is at least possible...
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Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 8,791
1st Team Squad
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1st Team Squad
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 8,791 |
Yes Vish, i honestly believe that if we break into the top 4 it will be at the expense of one of those 2. To answer the second part of your question, i really dont believe Moyes will be able to united where thay are at the moment in his first two seasons, despite any new signings. I just dont believe he has it in him. I dont rate him as a big club manager at all. Kinda like Roy, he was great at WBA but horrid at LFC. Thats what i base it on, they have lost 2 very very good coaches aswell and Fergie, who had what it takes. Perhaps Moyes will get there in 3-4 years time but i dont see united excelling under him this season or next and i do expect him to be there at least for 2 years.
Sign Reus
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Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 22,926
Liverpool Legend
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Liverpool Legend
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 22,926 |
Yes Vish, i honestly believe that if we break into the top 4 it will be at the expense of one of those 2. To answer the second part of your question, i really dont believe Moyes will be able to united where thay are at the moment in his first two seasons, despite any new signings. I just dont believe he has it in him. I dont rate him as a big club manager at all. Kinda like Roy, he was great at WBA but horrid at LFC. Thats what i base it on, they have lost 2 very very good coaches aswell and Fergie, who had what it takes. Perhaps Moyes will get there in 3-4 years time but i dont see united excelling under him this season or next and i do expect him to be there at least for 2 years. This is what I thought you had in mind when you mentioned United, provided Fergie doesn't pull his weight in if ever Moyes is out of his depth. It looks though that Arsenal is a different ball game now, even if they don't succeed with their bid on Suarez, they look to have money and want to spend. I am sure you realise that with this it will just become harder to break into the top 4. Looks like you have agreed with Cool that United will be the weakest of the current top 4, you might wish to wash your mouth again.
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Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 8,791
1st Team Squad
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1st Team Squad
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 8,791 |
Lol...I stated it a few weeks ago. I honestly believe united will be a much tamer beast in the next two seasons, if Fergie stays away from the dugout.
Sign Reus
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