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Commolli's hand revealed?
#215147 19/04/12 04:38 PM
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READ THIS FIRST

Apart from stating the obvious this shows a statistical approach to football far beyond what I had imagined, and given how we appear to have adhered to it there may be something in the suggestion that Commolli had a far larger part to play in our tactical approach.

Notable to me is the inference that Downing and Henderson have been played more often than Maxi and Kuyt despite a lack of results because they fit the bill statistically. Yet when we have adhered to the desired statistics we have largely failed to perform. The crossing statistic is very interesting too, as that points towards Carroll being Commolli's signing, something few on here would have suspected.

It will be interesting to see how our play changes (if at all) now that he's out the door.
Re: Commolli's hand revealed?
#215149 19/04/12 04:45 PM
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stupidest thing ever going on moneyball theory. get the best players,play the best football and the stats will take care of themselves.
Re: Commolli's hand revealed?
EMP #215150 19/04/12 04:53 PM
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Moneyball works but only with common sense in theory we should have a brilliant team but of course you have to take into account the quality of chances created, quality of crosses created, and the amount of players in the box when the crosses are made.

Imo if we had a better quality of crosses, more players in the box and better creative players to create more clear cut one on one chances then we'd be rolling in the points.

Upcoming world class players IMO for 2014 WORLD CUP:
K-P Boateng, Gotze, Sturridge, Kroos, Lucas Leiva, Hummels, Kyriakos Papadopoulos,
Re: Commolli's hand revealed?
Desh #215152 19/04/12 04:56 PM
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moneyball is for spoofers, something i suspected commolli was from day 1
Re: Commolli's hand revealed?
EMP #215153 19/04/12 05:01 PM
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Re: Commolli's hand revealed?
Desh #215154 19/04/12 05:03 PM
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Well, as the author says:
"As with quite a few things this season (woodwork hits and clear-cut-chance scoring to name but two), Liverpool are a statistical outlier here who have earned fewer points than they have probably deserved."

There is also data that suggests poor decision-making by referees this season has cost us more than any team in the division, to the tune of 11 points dropped. Another 11 points might still see us only one place better in the league, but we'd only be 2 points off 4th. Add in those near 40 woodwork hits... The stats seem to have bought us the players to make the chances, but we have the worst chance conversion rate in the league.

Maybe we're only 2 players short of a top 3 finish after all...
Re: Commolli's hand revealed?
#215155 19/04/12 05:59 PM
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Originally Posted By: thundyr
Well, as the author says:
"As with quite a few things this season (woodwork hits and clear-cut-chance scoring to name but two), Liverpool are a statistical outlier here who have earned fewer points than they have probably deserved."

There is also data that suggests poor decision-making by referees this season has cost us more than any team in the division, to the tune of 11 points dropped. Another 11 points might still see us only one place better in the league, but we'd only be 2 points off 4th. Add in those near 40 woodwork hits... The stats seem to have bought us the players to make the chances, but we have the worst chance conversion rate in the league.

Maybe we're only 2 players short of a top 3 finish after all...


Maybe we're fed up with excuses. We are where we are in the league on merit. Sabermetrics clearly doesn't crossover into football too well - either that or it's like FSG says - we have the wrong people in place to put it onto practice.
Re: Commolli's hand revealed?
#215156 19/04/12 06:03 PM
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I take it a "final third regain" is basically winning the ball back in the opponents' half? confused

In God we trust. Everyone else is a suspect.
Re: Commolli's hand revealed?
Salforal #215157 19/04/12 06:08 PM
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That article gives us a lot of information without really telling us anything at all.
What use is a cross if the attacker isn't on the end of it?
What use are loads of crosses if they are inaccurate?
Is the inaccuracy down to the crosser or the target?
What use are tackles won if possession is then squandered?
What use are shots on goals if they are inaccurate?
What use is an FTR if it doesn't result in a shot, accurate or otherwise?
What use is a tackle where the ball still goes to the opposition?

...and so on?

It's a bit different in baseball because at anyone time it is one team against one individual with the majority of the players static. Football has far too many variables. This moneyball theory needs to be knocked on the head if it's telling us that henderson, adam, downing and carroll are the answer to our problems!!
Re: Commolli's hand revealed?
Carheex #215160 19/04/12 06:42 PM
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Originally Posted By: CarheeX
That article gives us a lot of information without really telling us anything at all.
What use is a cross if the attacker isn't on the end of it?
What use are loads of crosses if they are inaccurate?
Is the inaccuracy down to the crosser or the target?
What use are tackles won if possession is then squandered?
What use are shots on goals if they are inaccurate?
What use is an FTR if it doesn't result in a shot, accurate or otherwise?
What use is a tackle where the ball still goes to the opposition?

...and so on?

It's a bit different in baseball because at anyone time it is one team against one individual with the majority of the players static. Football has far too many variables. This moneyball theory needs to be knocked on the head if it's telling us that henderson, adam, downing and carroll are the answer to our problems!!


The moneyball principles are an excellent tool in assessing a player, but it is only a tool. It can only help if used correctly and in context, But with anything in life relying too much on mathmatics or calculations moves away from the personnal characteristics required - such as bottle and mental character.

the above players mentioned never strike me as real believers in their ability, quite often they would rather pass(Henderson) or dive(Carroll) than take responsibility. Character has as much to play as ability. Moneyball doesn't factor this in.
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