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#631013 - 26/01/20 04:41 PM Coronavirus - Harvard epidemiolgist "Virus is thermonuclear"
Pickles Offline
Under 23 Player

Registered: 23/12/15
Posts: 4898
Harvard epidemiologist says coronavirus is "thermonuclear pandemic level bad"

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding, a Harvard-trained epidemiologist who taught at the school for 15 years, published his alarming analysis of the coronavirus outbreak on Twitter Saturday, calling the virus "thermonuclear pandemic level bad" and declaring "I really hate to be the epidemiologist who has to admit this, but we are potentially faced with an unchecked pandemic that the world has not seen since the 1918 Spanish Influenza."

Below is the compiled text from his Twitter thread:

HOLY MOTHER OF G*D - the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad - never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. I'm not exaggerating...

"We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (R_0) to be 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.6-4.0), indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing. We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8-5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, and by 21 January a total of 11,341 people (prediction interval, 9,217-14,245) had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year. Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan we predict the epidemic in Wuhan will be substantially larger by 4 February (191,529 infections; prediction interval, 132,751-273,649), infection will be established in other Chinese cities, and importations to other countries will be more frequent. Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February. Our findings are critically dependent on the assumptions underpinning our model, and the timing and reporting of confirmed cases, and there is considerable uncertainty associated with the outbreak at this early stage. With these caveats in mind, our work suggests that a basic reproductive number for this 2019-nCoV outbreak is higher compared to other emergent coronaviruses, suggesting that containment or control of this pathogen may be substantially more difficult."!!!!

SUMMARY: so what does this mean for the world??? We are now faced with the most virulent virus 🦠 epidemic the world has ever seen. An R0=3.8 means that it exceeds SARS's modest 0.49 viral attack rate by 7.75x — almost 8 fold! A virus that spreads 8 faster than SARS cannot be stopped by containment alone. A 99% quarantine lockdown containment of Wuhan will not even reduce the epidemic's spread by even 1/3rd in the next 2 weeks. Thus, I really hate to be the epidemiologist who has to admit this, but we are potentially faced with possibly an unchecked pandemic that the world has not seen since the 1918 Spanish Influenza. Let's hope it doesn't reach that level but we now live in the modern world 🌎 with faster ✈️+ 🚞 than 1918. WHO and CDC needs to declare public health emergency ASAP!

What is the typical R0 attack rate for the seasonal flu in most years? It's around an R0=1.28. The 2009 flu pandemic? R0=1.48. The 1918 Spanish Flu? 1.80. This new #WuhanCoronavirus reproductive value again? R0=3.8.

And it gets even worse, the Lancet now reports that the coronavirus is contagious even when *no symptoms*: specifically: "crucial to isolate patients... quarantine contacts as early as possible because asymptomatic infection appears possible"!

Let's pretend the 3.8 estimate is too high (there's unpublished estimates of 2.5). even if this virus's R0=2.5, that's still 2x higher than seasonal flu's 1.28 (ref above), and higher than 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic of 1.80 that killed millions. So 2.8 is still super bad folks.

eek

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#631014 - 26/01/20 04:47 PM Re: Coronavirus - Harvard epidemiolgist "Virus is thermonuclear" [Re: Pickles]
Pickles Offline
Under 23 Player

Registered: 23/12/15
Posts: 4898
Now I do like a good conspiracy theory but ground zero for this place is Wuhan which just so happens to have a Bio-warfare Lab.
The Chi-comms don't give a rats a..ss about their own folks and would happily see a pandemic strike down the economies of the USA and it's partners. This just seems too convenient at a time when Trump is crippling China's economy with tariffs.

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#631015 - 26/01/20 04:50 PM Re: Coronavirus - Harvard epidemiolgist "Virus is thermonuclear" [Re: Pickles]
Pickles Offline
Under 23 Player

Registered: 23/12/15
Posts: 4898
Israeli Biological Warfare Expert Connects China’s Wuhan Virus to Covert Biological Warfare Laboratory

An Israeli biological warfare expert is linking China’s deadly Wuhan virus to China’s ‘covert biological warfare’ laboratory(s); It’s believed that the Wuhan Institute of Virology is where the disease may have originated.

An Israeli biological warfare expert by the name of Dany Shoham, who is now with the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar Ilan University in Israel, believes that the deadly Wuhan virus is likely connected to one of China’s covert biological warfare laboratories; in this case, the Wuhan Institute of Virology. While there is a lot of speculation at this point, there are several truths that validate his concern. Shoham stated, “Certain laboratories in the institute have probably been engaged, in terms of research and development, in Chinese biological weapons, at least collaterally, yet not as a principal facility of the Chinese BW alignment.”

Dany Shoham was a lieutenant colonel and a senior analyst with the Israeli Military Intelligence for biological and chemical warfare, and he unquestionably states that biological tests that are run in these laboratories are ‘covert’. In addition to his suspicions, the US State Department believes that China has been partaking in covert biological warfare operations as well. Though China is denying any rumors of involvement.

The State Department issued a report in 2019 stating that “Information indicates that the People’s Republic of China engaged during the reporting period in biological activities with potential dual-use applications, which raises concerns regarding its compliance with the BWC,” the report said, adding that the United States suspects China failed to eliminate its biological warfare program as required by the treaty. The United States has compliance concerns with respect to Chinese military medical institutions’ toxin research and development because of the potential dual-use applications and their potential as a biological threat.”

Thus far, the virus has killed at least 41 people with that number likely to rise and has spread to nine other countries, including the United States. The first report in the US came from Washington State.
January 25th, 2020|News

https://beholdisrael.org/israeli-biologi...are-laboratory/

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#631066 - 28/01/20 11:36 AM Re: Coronavirus - Harvard epidemiolgist "Virus is thermonuclear" [Re: Pickles]
EnergisedReds Offline
Liverpool Legend

Registered: 10/01/10
Posts: 21681
Originally Posted By Pickles
Israeli Biological Warfare Expert Connects China’s Wuhan Virus to Covert Biological Warfare Laboratory

An Israeli biological warfare expert is linking China’s deadly Wuhan virus to China’s ‘covert biological warfare’ laboratory(s); It’s believed that the Wuhan Institute of Virology is where the disease may have originated.

An Israeli biological warfare expert by the name of Dany Shoham, who is now with the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar Ilan University in Israel, believes that the deadly Wuhan virus is likely connected to one of China’s covert biological warfare laboratories; in this case, the Wuhan Institute of Virology. While there is a lot of speculation at this point, there are several truths that validate his concern. Shoham stated, “Certain laboratories in the institute have probably been engaged, in terms of research and development, in Chinese biological weapons, at least collaterally, yet not as a principal facility of the Chinese BW alignment.”

Dany Shoham was a lieutenant colonel and a senior analyst with the Israeli Military Intelligence for biological and chemical warfare, and he unquestionably states that biological tests that are run in these laboratories are ‘covert’. In addition to his suspicions, the US State Department believes that China has been partaking in covert biological warfare operations as well. Though China is denying any rumors of involvement.

The State Department issued a report in 2019 stating that “Information indicates that the People’s Republic of China engaged during the reporting period in biological activities with potential dual-use applications, which raises concerns regarding its compliance with the BWC,” the report said, adding that the United States suspects China failed to eliminate its biological warfare program as required by the treaty. The United States has compliance concerns with respect to Chinese military medical institutions’ toxin research and development because of the potential dual-use applications and their potential as a biological threat.”

Thus far, the virus has killed at least 41 people with that number likely to rise and has spread to nine other countries, including the United States. The first report in the US came from Washington State.
January 25th, 2020|News

https://beholdisrael.org/israeli-biologi...are-laboratory/


Are you subscribed to such articles?

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#631092 - 29/01/20 11:34 AM Re: Coronavirus - Harvard epidemiolgist "Virus is thermonuclear" [Re: Pickles]
Pickles Offline
Under 23 Player

Registered: 23/12/15
Posts: 4898
“90,000 Infected”: Chinese Nurse Claims Coronavirus Outbreak In Wuhan Is MUCH WORSE Than Reported (VIDEO)




In a leaked video, a nurse in Wuhan, China claimed that 90,000 people in China have been infected so far and stated that many people are currently in China visiting family due to Chinese New Year.

The Chinese nurse warned that the virus is showing signs of mutation and that millions of people could be at risk of getting infected.

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#631355 - 07/02/20 04:44 PM Re: Coronavirus - Harvard epidemiolgist "Virus is thermonuclear" [Re: Pickles]
Hercules/AF 58 Offline
1st Team Squad

Registered: 11/03/11
Posts: 8595
It's not looking good, the spread is quicker and more widespread that anyone expected, or the authorities are admitting. This could be a real belter, I fear.

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#631356 - 07/02/20 05:03 PM Re: Coronavirus - Harvard epidemiolgist "Virus is thermonuclear" [Re: Hercules/AF 58]
EnergisedReds Offline
Liverpool Legend

Registered: 10/01/10
Posts: 21681
Originally Posted By Hercules/AF 58
It's not looking good, the spread is quicker and more widespread that anyone expected, or the authorities are admitting. This could be a real belter, I fear.


What's the risk of the EPL being shut down because of the spread and would any team be proclaimed champions

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#631362 - 08/02/20 01:37 PM Re: Coronavirus - Harvard epidemiolgist "Virus is thermonuclear" [Re: Pickles]
Pickles Offline
Under 23 Player

Registered: 23/12/15
Posts: 4898
Epidemic Tracker In China May Have Accidentally Leaked Real Data On Wuhan Virus Deaths — And They’re Bad

by Eric A. Blair February 5, 2020


Tencent, a multinational conglomerate holding company in China, may have accidentally leaked the real data on the Wuhan virus.

The real spread and death toll of the coronavirus is unknown, as China controls all information on the deadly pneumonia-like virus. But some interesting numbers recently appeared that might give a real clue to its spread.

“On late Saturday evening (Feb. 1), Tencent, on its webpage titled ‘Epidemic Situation Tracker,’ showed confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019nCoV) in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure,” Taiwan News reported.

The number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300. Most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day.

But that report didn’t last long.

“Moments later, Tencent updated the numbers to reflect the government’s ‘official’ numbers that day. Netizens noticed that Tencent has on at least three occasions posted extremely high numbers, only to quickly lower them to government-approved statistics,” the news site reported.

Theories quickly emerged about the differing numbers. Some speculated that Tencent has two sets of data, the “real data” and “processed” data., and that some sort of coding problem caused the “real” data to accidentally appear on its webpage.

Others speculate that the numbers are even worse than Tencent said, noting that as the virus sweeps across rural parts of China, many coronavirus patients die outside of hospitals and are thus not counted.

A U.S. site connected to Johns Hopkins put the numbers far lower, with 24,631 infected, 494 dead and 1,029 “recovered.”

Take a look at the worldwide map here>>>

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

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#631371 - 08/02/20 06:07 PM Re: Coronavirus - Harvard epidemiolgist "Virus is thermonuclear" [Re: Pickles]
EnergisedReds Offline
Liverpool Legend

Registered: 10/01/10
Posts: 21681
Originally Posted By Pickles
Epidemic Tracker In China May Have Accidentally Leaked Real Data On Wuhan Virus Deaths — And They’re Bad

by Eric A. Blair February 5, 2020


Tencent, a multinational conglomerate holding company in China, may have accidentally leaked the real data on the Wuhan virus.

The real spread and death toll of the coronavirus is unknown, as China controls all information on the deadly pneumonia-like virus. But some interesting numbers recently appeared that might give a real clue to its spread.

“On late Saturday evening (Feb. 1), Tencent, on its webpage titled ‘Epidemic Situation Tracker,’ showed confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019nCoV) in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure,” Taiwan News reported.

The number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300. Most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day.

But that report didn’t last long.

“Moments later, Tencent updated the numbers to reflect the government’s ‘official’ numbers that day. Netizens noticed that Tencent has on at least three occasions posted extremely high numbers, only to quickly lower them to government-approved statistics,” the news site reported.

Theories quickly emerged about the differing numbers. Some speculated that Tencent has two sets of data, the “real data” and “processed” data., and that some sort of coding problem caused the “real” data to accidentally appear on its webpage.

Others speculate that the numbers are even worse than Tencent said, noting that as the virus sweeps across rural parts of China, many coronavirus patients die outside of hospitals and are thus not counted.

A U.S. site connected to Johns Hopkins put the numbers far lower, with 24,631 infected, 494 dead and 1,029 “recovered.”

Take a look at the worldwide map here>>>

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6



What's the point of posting all these unchecked rumours, what would you do more than you are doing currently? What's your point, the US should bomb China because they are lying and to finish the virus there?


Edited by EnergisedReds (08/02/20 06:08 PM)

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#631395 - 10/02/20 12:33 AM Re: Coronavirus - Harvard epidemiolgist "Virus is thermonuclear" [Re: Pickles]
Pickles Offline
Under 23 Player

Registered: 23/12/15
Posts: 4898
Tell you what Vish, don't read them and you won't get your knickers in a twist then!

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